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January 1, 2010

College Football Bowl Preview: Liberty Bowl

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

The NCAA post-season kicked off December 19th, with 34 games being played in a three week span.

The Sportmeisters are previewing each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and providing our predictions as well. Let’s get to it!

Liberty Bowl, January 2nd, 5:30 PM, Memphis, TN

East Carolina (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5)

About East Carolina: ECU made some heads turn with their stellar play at the beginning of last season, but that wasn’t the case in 2009. They lost two of their first three games, before winning four out of six to pull themselves to 5-4. They then reeled off four straight wins, including the C-USA Championship over Houston, to finish at 9-4.

ECU provides a balanced attack that ranks somewhere in the middle of the FBS. Senior RB Dominique Lindsay rushed for 1,029 yards and five touchdowns, making him the first ECU back to clear 1,000 yards since Chris Johnson. Senior QB Patrick Pinkney does make some mistakes (ten interceptions), but still managed to throw for 2738 yards and 14 touchdowns. Junior WR Dwayne Harris is his top target, reeling in 79 balls for 914 yards and six touchdowns. He also managed to score five rushing touchdowns on the season. Pinkney benefited from an offensive line that only gave up .85 sacks a game (eighth in NCAA FBS). Over the last seven ECU games, Pinkney was sacked once.

Defensively, ECU is an enigma. They give up a lot of yards (385.62 per game, 76th in NCAA FBS), but opponents only score 22.08 points a game (38th in NCAA FBS). A big reason for that is turnovers. They recorded 33 turnovers, finishing with a +14 margin. Going back to 2006, ECU has had 30+ turnovers yearly, including one a game since 2007. Senior DB Van Eskridge is the biggest ball-hawker, pulling six interceptions to go with 93 tackles. Senior DE C.J. Wilson likes to hang out in the backfield, accumulating 56 tackles (10.5 for loss), and 5.5 sacks. Senior LB Nick Johnson contributed 93 tackles (7.5 for loss), and two interceptions. ECU gets pushed back to the limit defensively, but usually can pull in an interception and kill a drive.

About Arkansas: Arkansas had a tough start to their season, losing two of their first three, with both losses coming to foes in the Top 25. They went 2-2 over their next four games, putting them at 3-4 at the halfway mark of the season. They reeled off four straight wins, all by double digits, before a season-ending loss against LSU finished them at 7-5.

The Razorbacks boast one of the most potent offenses, ranking 14th in total yards with 439.33 yards a game. That is led by their tenth ranked passing offense, which puts up 303.33 yards a game. That directly leads to the eighth ranked scoring offense, averaging 37.33 points a game. Sophomore QB Ryan Mallet directed the high-flying Razorbacks, putting up 3422 yards and 29 touchdowns. His top target is Sophomore WR Greg Childs, who has 45 catches for 862 yards and seven touchdowns. WRs Jarius Wright and Joe Adams combined for 1144 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

For all that good on offense, Arkansas struggles defensively. Their biggest offender is the pass defense, which gives up 251.75 yards a game (104th out of 119 teams). It’s a big reason their defense gives up 401.83 yards a game (90th in NCAA FBS). They do know how to force turnovers, finishing the 2009 campaign with a +13 margin. Sophomore LB Jerry Franklin is the leader of the squad, piling up 84 tackles (5 for loss), 1.5 sacks, and a fumble return for a touchdown. Senior DL Adrian Davis contributed 46 tackles (9.5 for loss) and 5.5 sacks. When playing against Arkansas, expect a high-scoring affair, on both sides of the ball.

The Matchup: ECU is 5-5 in bowl games. This will be their fourth straight bowl appearance, and second straight Liberty Bowl, where they lost to Kentucky last season 25-19.

Arkansas is 11-22-3 in its bowl history. They have lost two in a row, most recently the 2007 Cotton Bowl to Missouri 38-7.

Expect a high scoring affair in this one. ECU is used to high-powered offenses, most recently facing Houston and Case Keenum, but Mallet has a lot more weapons at his disposal. It starts with his 6-7 frame, allowing him to keep in the pocket longer, giving his receivers more time to get open. Look for ECU to lay off the blitzing, keeping seven in coverage, and expect their front four, led by Wilson, to get some pressure on Mallet. If Mallet can get rattled, which is what the front four did to Keenum, look for the secondary to get some late Christmas gifts in the form of interceptions.

ECU has an average offense, but they are facing a decidedly horrific defense, especially against the pass. Pinkney has a lot of interceptions (14), so he needs to settle down in the face of pressure. Pinkney has a tendency to pat the ball before throwing, so if the secondary can get a read on this, that interception number could go up before the day is out.

The Prediction: Mallet has the tools and the technique to lead Arkansas over an ECU squad that went 0-3 against BCS Conferences. Arkansas 33-28.

December 28, 2009

College Football Bowl Preview: Armed Forces Bowl

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

The NCAA post-season kicks off December 19th, with 33 games being played in a three week span. Seniors will get their last hurrah, and teams will attempt to end their season on the winning side, in the hopes of improving recruiting that follows afterwords. The Sportmeisters will preview each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and provide our predictions as well. Let’s get to it!

Armed Forces Bowl, December 31st, 12:00 PM, Fort Worth, TX

Air Force Academy (7-5) vs. Houston (10-3)

About Air Force: The Falcons started their season off flying high, winning three of their first four games. Two losses by a combined six points dropped the Falcons to 3-3, but they bounced back, winning four of six to finish 7-5.

Though one might expect a team of Air Force cadets would pass the ball, that is not the case when they are 118th out of 120th in passing offense (82.33 yards per game). Instead, the Air Force grinds it out using the triple option. Those options breed success, as the Air Force is third in NCAA FBS for rushing yards (273.58 yards a game). The Falcons boast four players with over 300 yards rushing on the season, led by Junior FB Jared Tew, who has 797 yards and 7 touchdowns as the first option. Sophomore RB Asher Clark is right behind him with 736 yards and five touchdowns. When Clark needs a break, he is spelled by equally quick and shifty Sophomore RB Savier Stephens, who has 417 yards and three touchdowns.

The Falcons do have speed, and it is a big reason for their defensive prowress. Tenth in NCAA FBS in overall defense (284.75 yards per game), the Air Force is ninth in scoring defense (15.33 points per game), and first in passing defense (148.67 yards). Sophomore DB Anthony Wright leads the team with four interceptions (two for touchdowns). He is a big reason the Air Force is third in turnover margin (+1.42 per game). Senior LB John Falgout leads the undersized defense with 96 tackles and a sack.

About Houston: Three straight wins, including an upset over then No. 5 Oklahoma State, had the Cougars thinking big. An upset loss to UTEP ended those thoughts, but Houston bounced back to win five in a row. They went 2-2 over their final four games, including a loss in the C-USA Championship, to sit at 10-3 on the year.

The nation’s number one offensive team (581.23 yards per game), they are also second in scoring offense (43.92 points per game). Where does it all come from? A number one passing attack (450 yards per game). Despite critics calling him a “system QB” Junior Case Keenum made some hype for himself, with 5410 yards and 43 touchdowns. Three WRs all have over 900 receiving yards, with the potential for all three to be over 1,000 following the bowl game. Junior WR James Cleveland (1182 yards, 14 touchdowns), Sophomore WR Patrick Edwards (990 yards, five touchdowns), and Sophomore WR Tyron Carrier (985 yards, seven touchdowns), give defense’s a number of fits when figuring out who to cover.

Houston’s defense doesn’t quite live up to the hype of the offense, ranking 108th in total defense (442.69 yards a game). Their rushing defense in itself is horrific, ranking 111th with 213.08 yards a game. Three players on the defense have over 100 tackles, led by Sophomore LB Marcus McGraw (133 tackles, four sacks). Following him is Senior LB C.J. Cavness (126 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and Sophomore DB Nick Saenz (101 tackles).

The Matchup: The Air Force is 8-10-1 in bowl games. They are currently on a three game losing streak, after becoming bowl eligible the last two seasons.

Houston is 8-10-1 as well. This is their fifth straight bowl game, and they have lost four of their last five.

In a game worthy of a redux, these two teams met in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, with Houston squeaking by 34-28. This game is the first bowl game rematch since the Outback Bowl, which featured South Carolina and Ohio State in 2001 and 2002.

Undoubtedly, the big matchup in this game is the nation’s number one passing offense in Houston against the number one pass defense from Air Force. However, Air Force’s rushing attack will gain huge chunks of yards using their option against Houston’s spotty rush defense. Last year, Air Force had 38 minutes of possession, and as long as the offense is on the field, Keenum can’t be a factor. The Falcons will look to do the same. Of course, if Houston gets a few scores up early, Air Force could be in trouble, as a run-oriented attack will not do well playing from behind.

The Prediction: Air Force’s pass defense plays better than the 50th ranked team of last season, and the rushing attack eats minutes up from Keenum and the Cougar Offense. Air Force wins the rematch, 35-28.

December 18, 2009

College Football Bowl Preview: New Orleans Bowl

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

The NCAA post-season kicks off December 19th, with 33 games being played in a three week span. Seniors will get their last hurrah, and teams will attempt to end their season on the winning side, in the hopes of improving recruiting that follows afterwords. The Sportmeisters will preview each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and provide our predictions as well. Let’s get to it!

New Orleans Bowl, December 20th, 8:30 PM, New Orleans, Louisiana

Middle Tennessee State (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)

About Middle Tennessee State: After starting the season 3-3, the Blue Raiders blew up, winning six in a row to qualify from the Sun Belt Conference. During that six game winning streak, they averaged 41.6 points a game. They are led by Junior QB Dwight Dasher, who is ninth in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision with 298.3 all-purpose yards gained per game. A threat to score on the ground or through the air, he has been responsible for 32 touchdowns (21 passing, 11 rushing). Defensively, they are best known for their pressure, led by the combination of Senior DL Chris McCoy and Junior DL Jamari Lattimore, who have combined for 13 sacks and 30.5 tackles for loss on the season. Their ability to win will depend on keeping the ball on the ground with Dasher and Sophomore D.D. Kyles (823 yards, 6.5 yard per carry average) and forcing turnovers (ninth in FBS with +11).

About Southern Miss: A fast 3-0 start, including a win over Virginia, had the makings of a promising season for the Golden Eagles. They lost that momentum, however, going 4-5 over the remainder of the season to finish 7-5 in Conference USA. They are a high-octane, score quickly offense, evident by their 33 points a game average, 19th in FBS. They use a two-headed rushing attack, led by Seniors Damion Fletcher (937 yards, eight touchdowns), and Tory Harrison (626 yards, nine touchdowns). Defensively, they are led by Sophomores Korey Williams (110 tackles, 7.5 sacks, three forced fumbles) and Ronnie Thorton (103 tackles, two sacks). Much like their opponent, they will rely on a solid ground game and the ability to force turnovers to win.

The Matchup: Middle Tennessee is making their second bowl appearance, and are looking for their first victory. They last made it to a bowl in 2006. Their six game winning streak is their longest in school history.

Southern Miss is 9-10 in 19 appearances, but hold a perfect 3-0 in the New Orleans Bowl, including a 2008 30-27 (OT) win over Troy. This is the Golden Eagles eighth straight bowl appearance. C-USA currently holds a 4-2 advantage over the Sun Belt Conference in the New Orleans Bowl.

The two teams are stastically equal, as they sit right behind each other in total offense (Middle Tennessee is 30th, Southern Miss is 31st). They both rely on an even game, using the rush to help setup the pass. Defensively, they both use pressure to force sacks and turnovers. Middle Tennessee has a tendency to get more pressure (fourth in FBS in sacks and first in FBS in tackles for loss), but if the Golden Eagles use some misdirections and draws, they can force the Blue Raiders to sit back, allowing them to gain three to four yards a carry, and move the ball down the field. When two even teams match up, the game will usually come down to whoever blinks first.

The Prediction: Middle Tennessee uses their pressure to earn a ten win season, 34-31.

December 17, 2009

College Football Bowl Preview: St. Petersburg Bowl

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

The NCAA post-season kicks off December 19th, with 33 games being played in a three week span. Seniors will get their last hurrah, and teams will attempt to end their season on the winning side, in the hopes of improving recruiting that follows afterwords. The Sportmeisters will preview each of the 33 games that lie ahead, and provide our predictions as well. Let’s get to it!

St. Petersburg Bowl, December 19th, 8:00 PM, St. Petersburg, FL

Rutgers (8-4) vs. University of Central Florida (8-4)

About Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights limp into their bowl game, having lost two of their last three games since winning seven of eight. They did this mostly behind the arm of true Freshman Tom Savage, who threw for 1,917 yards and 12 touchdowns. However, he is a Freshman, and he has struggled, throwing six interceptions (four in the last three weeks), and has completed a measly 52.3 percent of his passes. His top target is Senior Receiver Tim Brown, who caught 51 balls for 1,051 and eight touchdowns. When he gets the ball, Rutgers usually wins, as they are 5-0 when he has over 100 yards receiving. Defensively, the Scarlet Knights gives up an average of 17.1 points per game. That’s thanks to their NCAA best 1.67 plus turnover margin, and their 19th ranked defense (312.17 yards per game). Considering the green of their offense, if the defense can hold down their end of the deal, allowing Savage to manage the game, Rutgers should win.

About Central Florida: The Knights come into the bowl game riding a three game winning streak, including an upset over then No. 15 Houston. Sophomore Brynn Harvey churns it out on the ground, with 1,077 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season. This includes five games of 100+ yards, highlighted by a 219 yard, one touchdown performance against Memphis. During the Knights winning streak, Harvey has averaged 133 yards and two touchdowns a game. While they run hard on one side of the ball, on the defensive side, UCF prevents anyone from gaining ground. Their run defense gives up 82.5 yards per game, good for 18th in the nation and first in Conference USA. It all starts with Junior Defensive End Bruce Miller, who has recorded 47 tackes (15.5 for loss) and 11 sacks. Senior Defensive End Jarvis Geathers has also contributed 11 sacks on the season. This kind of pressure will be key for UCF against a young Quarterback from Rutgers.

The Matchup: Rutgers is in their sixth bowl, posting a 3-2 record, with a three game winning streak. This is also their fifth straight bowl, after going from 1978-2005 without an appearance. UCF is in their third bowl, and third this decade. They are still looking for that first elusive win. The Big East currently holds a 1-0 advantage over C-USA in the St. Petersburg Bowl, by virtue of a 41-14 win by USF over Memphis in last year’s inaugural bowl game.

The key matchup within this game is going to be the youth and inexperience of Savage against a menacing pass rush that is fifth in the nation in sacks (3.08 a game). With a low completion percentage, and a number of turnovers in recent weeks, if UCF can get early pressure while continuing to stop the run, this game has the potential to be a blowout.

On the opposite side, Rutgers is second in the nation in tackles for loss per game (8.50), and should be able to cool off Harvey, forcing UCF to the air behind Senior QB Brett Hodges (2263 yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions). Junior RB Joe Martinek is 77 yards away from his first career 1,000 rushing yard season. UCF won’t make it easy.

The Prediction: A defensive matchup, as UCF will rely on pressure to force Savage into mistakes, while Rutgers will use their schemes to slow down Harvey. In the end, UCF squeaks it out, 14-10.

November 3, 2009

NCAA Week 10 Top 25: Texas Remains On Top, Despite Strong Showing From Florida

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

For the first time in a few weeks, we have a repeat number one! But where does everyone else fall?

1. Texas (Last Week: 1) Next Game: 11/7 vs. UCF

The Longhorns meant business in their dismantling of Oklahoma State, and that keeps them at number one this week.

2. Florida (Last Week: 2) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Vanderbilt

The Gators finally looked like the dominant team that was lacking confidence the last few weeks. The road to the championship still goes through them.

3. Alabama (Last Week: 3) Next Game: 11/7 at No. 8 LSU

The annual “”Saban” bowl is in Baton Rouge this year, but Alabama had an extra week to get prepared for the onslaught of booing.

4. TCU (Last Week: 5) Next Game: 11/7 at San Diego State

Thanks to the USC’s loss, TCU moves up, but a weak schedule could still hold them back.

5. Boise State (Last Week: 6) Next Game: 11/6 at Louisiana Tech

Boise State sits in the same position as TCU, a weak schedule overlooking an otherwise dominant performance this season.

6. Iowa (Last Week: 7) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Northwestern

If Iowa could come out with a solid performance in a whole game, that might warrant jumping them in the polls. Until then, they sit where they are.

7. Georgia Tech (Last Week: 8 ) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Wake Forest

The ACC breeds a parity filled conference, so upsets are possible at any time. Georgia Tech needs to watch out.

8. LSU (Last Week: 9) Next Game: 11/7 vs. No. 3 Alabama

LSU lost their first shot at taking out a top ranked team, and they have even more motivation against their old coach.

9. Cincinnati (Last Week: 10) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Connecticut

Keep moving the Bearcats up, as they still have a lot to play for this season.

10. Penn State (Last Week: 12) Next Game: 11/7 vs. No. 13 Ohio State

For Penn State, this game could decide their entire season. A win is a must!

11. Oregon (Last Week: 14) Next Game: 11/7 at Stanford

Oregon played superb in their takedown of USC, and jump up three spots for it. They are now in complete control of the Pac-10.

12. USC (Last Week: 4) Next Game: 11/7 at Arizona State

USC can still make a BCS bowl as an at-large, but will need to start winning and getting their defense on track.

13. Ohio State (Last Week: 15) Next Game: 11/7 at No. 10 Penn State

The Big 10 Championship goes through Iowa right now, but Ohio State can take one step closer with a win on Saturday.

14. Pittsburgh (Last Week: 16) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Syracuse

This is a warm-up game for Pittsburgh’s stretch run, and the classic trap game is in effect here.

15. Utah (Last Week: 18) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Utah

A few losses helps Utah jump higher in the rankings.

16. Houston (Last Week: 19) Next Game: 11/7 at Tulsa

Despite giving up their most points since their loss to UTEP, the Cougars are in a good spot to earn a C-USA championship game berth.

17. Miami (Last Week: 17) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Virginia

Miami almost made it two losses in a row, but came back to stop Wake Forest’s upset bid.

18. Oklahoma State (Last Week: 11) Next Game: 11/7 at Iowa State

Three straight years, three straight losses to the Longhorns.

19. Oklahoma (Last Week: 22) Next Game: 11/7 at Nebraska

This game is another tough one for the Sooners, as Nebraska can go off at any time.

20. Virginia Tech (Last Week: 13) Next Game: 11/5 at East Carolina

Another Thursday night game is on the schedule, and the nation saw had bad the first one went for the Hokies.

21. Notre Dame (Last Week: 23) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Navy

Last time Navy came to South Bend, they upset the Irish. Will déjà vu strike this season?

22. Arizona (Last Week: 24) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Washington State

Arizona moves up a few spots thanks to a few losses in the polls.

23. California (Last Week: NR) Next Game: 11/7 vs. Oregon State

Welcome another Pac-10 team to the top 25, as the conference has shown some strength in numbers this season.

24. Wisconsin (Last Week: NR) Next Game: 11/7 at Indiana

Welcome to another Big 10 team, joining the top 25.

25. Brigham Young (Last Week: NR) Next Game: 11/7 at Wyoming

After starting off the season hot, the Cougars cool off, but work their way back into the top 25.

September 24, 2009

How To Get Your Small-Market NCAA Team On TV

By Ryan of The Sportmeisters

About a year ago, I had the chance to meet with Randy Spetman, Florida State Athletic Director, and he told me the way to get into a career in sports, was to be able to sell your product. So, it’s time for me to earn my marketing degree and explain how to get your small-market college football team some better exposure.

Back in 2004, ESPN hyped what was arguably the greatest time for a football fan, and that was 19 straight days of at least one live football telecast (college or NFL).  Now, we’re used to Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and the occasional Thursday game, which is now becoming a weekly standard, and even a Friday game is becoming commonplace. But games being played on Tuesday and Wednesdays? Yes it happened, and with 119 different FBS teams, there are thousands of fans who I’m sure tuned on those days to see their small-market school that don’t quite get the prime-time love on a Saturday night. Which, right there, is the key.

Small market schools from conferences such as the WAC, MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MWC, and so forth, aren’t top tier teams. Granted, the MWC is slowly making a name for themselves, but that’s semantic details.  Financially, they don’t pull in the big bucks that the bigger teams do, and in today’s cutthroat environment, especially for coaches, those with smaller budgets have to think outside the box to pull in the top recruits.  What else says free publicity like a weekday game nationally televised by ESPN? For example, both Tuesday and Wednesday games for two weeks during the 19 days of Football Television, were played by C-USA schools.  That’s eight teams getting a national audience to show their product. What team wouldn’t take that opportunity?

In the earlier days of football, teams could use the prestige angle and the exposure of being a big-time school to help lure recruits, because it was only those handfuls of schools getting the attention that would turn the head of NFL scouts.  Now, those same teams that used that recruiting pitch can’t anymore, or at least not with the same effect, because we’re having these smaller schools get attention because they play games on “off-nights”. Twenty years ago, how many NFL scouts and high school recruits would have been interested by the fact that, during his period at UCF, Kevin Smith ran for the second most yards in a single season, with 2,567? He ended up being televised twice on national television, with one of those games coming on a Sunday night. A night not designated for football, and on that night, third round draft pick , and starter for the Detroit Lions, Kevin Smith rushed for 175 yards and two touchdowns.  Would anyone have cared otherwise?

I know, I’m focusing heavy on one specific conference, but let’s face it, all the smaller conferences are using the fact that they will be televised to market themselves, and they’re playing harder than ever for the recruit’s attention!  The following non-automatic qualifier teams played on another day other than Saturday in just the first month: Tulsa, Tulane, Toledo, Fresno State, Boise State (even nationally ranked teams need exposure), and Nevada.

Even for the smaller schools in the bigger conferences that don’t get a lot of attention, they take advantage of this opportunity. We hear the ESPN pundits’ discussing the Thursday upsets constantly while these games happen. A short week against a small school can make the favorite look past the underdog, and then, Upset City!

Let’s look at a team using this purely to their advantage in the 2009 season, and that’s Boise State. Already Cinderella darlings for their upset of Oklahoma a few years back, the Broncos have led the way to non-automatic qualifiers getting exposure. This exposure helps them recruit players, bar none. These top recruits then help this team earn their top ten national ranking that they currently have.

In 2009, Boise State has no less than seven games not being played on a Saturday. As a top team in the polls, they bring in an extra audience already. However, a mid-week game helps give them a one-up on recruiting by showing potential Broncos that they can get on TV, and gain national exposure. For a school without a big financial budget in athletics, this is an easy way to show notice, not only to them, but their conference as well.

If I was an Athletic Director, and I needed to market my small-market team, I’d do like Boise State, only take it one step further: Every game is a weekday game.  Outside of the one or two non-conference games (to earn the big paycheck for getting whooped, and some of those games get televised), I would just play them all on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, and promote to my recruits that we can get you the national exposure to help get you to the next level, and win you the big awards, and all the while, the school rakes in the dough from it.  A complete win-win for all members.

So there you have it, my plan to make even the smallest mid-major conference school just as competitive as the big boys, and I for one, always look forward to sitting down and watching a football game, regardless of the date, time, and who’s playing.

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